The Case for Tremendous Long Term Plays in Crypto

It seems like every day the crypto market incurs more losses. If you’re trying to be smart and dollar cost average, what’s the point? The market continues to seemingly give back any gains it makes and drop lower.

Percent Gains in Crypto

Look – since the end of the last bull-run in November 2021, nearly everything in crypto has been annihilated. Everything is down. The stock market is not much better in many regards.

Crypto is notorious for moving fast – both upwards and downwards. In general crab-market (sideways moving conditions) the majority of gains and losses will be paired in the short term. Seasoned day traders and leverage players can make good money albeit with risk in these conditions.

For the rest of us, it sucks seeing 5-10% losses seemingly every week. The confirmation bias in “losing market conditions” is very strong. Overall, the market has been trapped in its current range for nearly 120 days. All upward and downward swings have corrected into this range. Chasing pumps is an easy way to lose money in this market – macroeconomic conditions are prevailing – high interest rates and general unhealthy global conditions are leading to a risk-off approach for most large investors. For those that read CoinBusters regularly we are strong advocates of the “strong will survive” and dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) approaches. In this case, you take small amounts of what you’d like to invest and buy incrementally. This helps smooth out short term market swings. This ensures you’re able to accumulate while prices are down which can pay off majorly when the markets recover.

But – if DCA-ing is so smart – why are we seeing all these 10% losses? Don’t forget – in the world of crypto time is important and percentages… are not. Let’s look at one of CoinBusters’ favorite projects, Polygon (MATIC).

Crypto Polygon Matic
Crypto Polygon Matic [source]

MATIC hit almost $3 per token during the peak frenzy at the end of 2021. In late June it cratered to $.35. That’s a major loss. Enter the DCA. If you had a MATIC position prior to the peak, you’ve likely “given back” most of your profits if you’re still holding the coin. But – let’s say you are an avid reader of CoinBusters and decided to really dig in and dollar cost average $100 roughly every other week (with one $100 purchase in mid June when the market really tanked, since you’re a good investor) into MATIC. Where would you be? Let’s pretend this started on April 1st, 2022.

4/1: price  = $1.70 = 58 tokens

4/15:price  = $1.39 = 72 tokens

4/30: price = $1.15 = 87 tokens

5/14: price = $.67 = 149 tokens

5/28: price = $.58 = 172 tokens

6/11: price = $.56 = 178 tokens

6/18: price = $.35 = 285 tokens

7/2:  price=  $.47 = 212 tokens

7/16: price = $.68 = 147 tokens

7/30: price = $.94 = 106 tokens

8/13: price = $1.00 = 100 tokens

8/27: price = $.80 = 125 tokens

9/11: price = $.89 = 112 tokens

9/25: price = $.74 = 135 tokens

10/9: price = $.81 = 123 tokens

Total Invested: $1500

Total Tokens: 2061

Cost Basis: $.72

Today’s price (10/12/2022): $.78

Profit = 8.3%

Even with the market being completely crushed since April, a simple $100 every other week DCA has you with an 8.3% profit. This is “paltry” for crypto but with the world as it is… profit anywhere is pretty good. 

Everyone is hurting in this market. Now is the time to double down and really dig in on the plays you think will survive and thrive/build their way through this market.

At CoinBusters, we’re keenly practicing this ourselves. We are always watching for products with new use-cases and major real-world partnerships. Pair these with good tokenomics and growing userbases and you have something that is sustainable.

We continue to advocate for BTC, ETH, ATOM and MATIC as projects that we believe fit our thesis and are religiously DCA-ing these. The profits aren’t astronomical, but trying to time the market is surely to lead you to ruin. MATIC, 13th largest project in all of crypto is up well over 2x from its lows during the bottom in June. These markets are where the patient and diligent are rewarded. We intend to continue DCA-ing through this and the foreseeable future at rates we can afford to. 

As always, please do your own research! 

Justin Mckennon

About Justin Mckennon


Justin McKennon is a Co-Founder of CoinBusters. Justin has BS and MS degrees in electrical engineering and deep background in economic research and software development. Justin specializes in data-driven analytics and frequently works with projects in the DeFi and GameFi spaces across the market.

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